East African Scenarios Stories

As part of the East African Scenarios Project, the Scenarios Stories offer a compelling narrative exploration of the region's potential futures. They are used by leadership and executive groups, communities and individuals to imagine, rehearse and refine important strategic decisions. The unique feature of scenario stories is that they represent futures that might have to be faced, regardless of preferences. The stories tend neither to be about unattainable utopias nor are they irredeemably apocalyptic. 

They are founded on solid, wideranging research and thus seek to combine an understanding of current trends and patterns with informed anticipation of likely events and other relevant variables to explore possible future outcomes.

Three Fables of the Future 

1. ‘I want to be a Star’ is a story about the seduction of beauty and wealth. It tells of an East Africa that is so spellbound by the promise of her natural beauty and resource wealth that she welcomes all suitors and relinquishes to themall control over her destiny. By 2040, she is deeply disappointed. 
2. In ‘I want a Visa’ East Africa’s executive elite,motivated by enlightened selfinterest, deploys its intellectual skills and state power to deliver development through the coordinated execution of what appears to be a visionary and progressive strategy. In 2040, it discovers that confidence in its ability to control outcomes has its limits. 
3. The third story, 'Usiniharakishe' (Don’t rush me!) explores ordinary East Africans’ struggle to retain and reclaim control over their most local assets – land, water, trees, creativity – in an effort to shape their own futures. By 2040, success is by no means assured as small units grapple with and risk being overwhelmed by the big challenges.